Strait of Hormuz Reopening: What the June 19 MoU Means for Chemical Supply Chains

A memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran calls for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen to traffic on June 19. While the agreement marks the formal end to one of the year's most significant maritime disruptions, industry analysts expect the recovery to be gradual rather than immediate. The parties most affected by the timeline are not tanker operators, but buyers of containerized chemical products, including polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), and titanium dioxide (TiO2).

The Connection Between Container Shipping and Chemical Procurement

Although most chemicals are liquids transported in tankers, a substantial volume of the chemical supply chain moves by container ship. Polymers such as polyethylene and polypropylene are shipped as pellets in containers, titanium dioxide is shipped in containerized form, and liquid chemicals are frequently moved in isotanks. As a result, disruptions to the container market translate directly into supply constraints and elevated landed costs for these products.

This distinction is material for procurement planning. A reopening of the Strait may be interpreted as broad relief, but the pressure on resin and pigment supply chains has been driven primarily by container-market tightness, which remains unresolved as of the announcement.

Carriers Are Expected to Resume Transits Cautiously

Ocean carriers are likely to remain cautious before resuming transits through the Strait. Lars Jensen, president of consultancy Vespucci Maritime, stated that he does not anticipate an immediate surge of vessels heading for transit following the announcement. As of 6:00 CET, automatic identification system (AIS) data from Vesselfinder.com indicated no immediate increase in vessel traffic toward the Strait.

Two factors underpin this caution. First, carriers are expected to wait until it is clear that the agreement will hold. Second, the Strait must be cleared of any mine threat before it can revert to the standard navigational channel. According to Jensen, "We might see a somewhat cautious approach at first until it is clear that the deal holds." For procurement teams, the reopening date should therefore be regarded as the start of a recovery process rather than its conclusion.

A Full Return to Normal Conditions May Take Two to Three Months

Vespucci Maritime estimates that a full return to pre-crisis conditions at the Strait will likely require two to three months. Jensen attributes this timeline to several factors beyond rerouting, including the need to adjust vessel rotations and to normalize empty-container return patterns. A further consideration is the volume of cargo that has been held elsewhere for several months awaiting an opening.

This backlog represents a notable risk. As Jensen observed, "There will be cargo ready to ship into the Gulf which has been waiting elsewhere for a few months until an opening happened. This can create a surge problem and associated bottleneck issues." Consequently, congestion may temporarily increase before conditions improve, as delayed cargo enters the Gulf alongside existing demand.

Container Freight Rates Remain Elevated

Container freight rates continue to rise and are now at their highest level since July 2025. Shipping market intelligence firm Linerlytica expects upward pressure on rates to persist through the end of July, supported by strong peak-season demand that has been further reinforced by US tariff relief and increased AI and green-energy cargo volumes.

A degree of short-term relief is possible. Linerlytica reports that 51 containerships with a total capacity of approximately 300,000 TEU are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf; releasing these vessels could ease pressure on an over-stretched container market. However, the firm noted that uncertainty remains regarding when regular services to the Persian Gulf can be restarted, which would generate additional vessel demand and offset part of that relief. Linerlytica also reported that Maersk has redeployed two vessels to the Bab el-Mandeb over the past two weeks, reflecting the degree to which capacity remains constrained.

Implications for Chemical Buyers

The practical guidance for buyers is to plan around the recovery timeline rather than the reopening date. Container capacity is expected to remain scarce, freight costs are expected to stay elevated, and landed costs on imported resins and titanium dioxide are likely to remain under pressure well into the third quarter.

Recommended measures for the coming quarter include incorporating longer lead times into purchasing of PE, PP, and TiO2; anticipating continued freight and surcharge volatility through at least the end of July; and treating the reopening as the beginning of a two-to-three-month normalization period. Organizations that secure coverage early and avoid assumptions of immediate relief will be better positioned as the recovery progresses.

Summary

The MoU and the June 19 reopening date are confirmed, but the relief sought by chemical buyers will not be immediate. Carriers are expected to remain cautious until the agreement proves durable and the Strait is cleared of mine threats. A backlog of waiting cargo may create a temporary bottleneck once traffic resumes, and container freight rates—already near a one-year high—are forecast to continue rising through July. For buyers of polyethylene, polypropylene, and titanium dioxide, the appropriate planning horizon is a two-to-three-month recovery accompanied by elevated costs into the third quarter.

California Chemical continues to monitor global freight and supply-chain developments to help customers maintain supply continuity and procurement stability.

Sources: ICIS, 2026; Vespucci Maritime (Lars Jensen); Linerlytica. Retrieved June 15, 2026.